Future proofing electricity forecasting

Issue

CIGRE Working Group C1-24 examined the increasing use of market simulations to determine the economic benefits of network augmentations to ensure prudent network investment. To support this, networks require accurate forecasting of electricity use in the long-term.

The WG identified that long-term load forecasts need to have sufficient granularity to support a detailed assessment. It also concluded that a number of demand conditions need to be studied to robustly assess economic benefits. Now becoming a global issue, is the increasing installation of embedded generation in distribution networks and how the characteristics of that generation (particularly roof-top PV) are changing the utilization patterns of networks.

Some aspects of load forecasting are changing:

• In addition to traditional peak demand forecasts, accurate minimum demand and energy consumption forecasts are required.
• Long-term forecasts need to be more granular - on at least an hourly basis, possibly shorter.
• Understanding the price elasticity of demand as it relates to demand side response.
• Differentiating the energy consumed by customers from the electricity generated by their own distributed generation.
• Understanding the relationship between energy tariffs and customer behavior and the impact on network revenues.

High penetration of roof-top PV

High penetration of roof-top PV on distribution feeders in Australia, California, Germany and elsewhere has already suppressed the daytime peak network utilization, and peak demand is moving to the early evening.  As PV continues to become cheaper, this impact will increase in scale and become more widespread world-wide. Changes to the timing of peak demand (net of distributed generation) and the patterns of network utilization, driven by peak insolation rather than underlying demand, all present a challenge for forecasters.

Challenges

Many significant issues make accurate load forecasting challenging including:

• Changes to customer behavior in response to increases in electricity prices and the availability of low cost embedded generation systems such as roof-top PV arrays
• Limited information available to system operators from beyond the customers' meters
• Impact of government policies that encourage energy efficiency
• Government and regulatory policies on tariffs including feed-in tariffs
• Government policies facilitating embedded generation in distribution networks
• Uncertainty in the economy
• Uncertainty in exchange rates
• Uncertainty of electricity demand from trade exposed industries

Working Group Scope

This working group aims to examine the demand and energy forecasting techniques currently being employed by network companies around the world and how they are dealing with the challenges outlined above.

Asking a range of questions about what changes networks from around the world see in the future (such as electric cars) and how they will respond to them, the WG aims to establish a best practice approach to forecasting.

Progress on this important global issue will be reported and updated on our website as it becomes available.

For more download the WG Poster